Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Monday, 12 October 2026 · Municipal El Plantio
Burgos
8th · 21 pts0–1FULL TIME
Granada CF
4th · 23 pts46% Burgos
25% Draw
30% Granada
OUR PICK
Burgos to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X4.0523.36
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
BurgosGranada CF1.4Goals per game1.7
1.1Conceded per game1.2
1.75Points per game1.92
50%Win rate58%
4Goal difference6
7Form, last 5 (pts)15
Burgos form
DWWWLH Castellón1–1
A Laredo2–4
A FC Andorra2–3
H Sabadell1–0
H Granada CF0–1
Granada CF form
WWWWWA Eldense0–2
A Cieza0–3
H Valladolid2–1
H Cadiz2–0
A Burgos0–1
Head to head
1
Burgos
3
Draw
1
Granada
Oct 2026Burgos – Granada CF0–1
May 2026Granada CF – Burgos0–1
Sept 2025Burgos – Granada CF1–1
Jan 2025Granada CF – Burgos0–0
Sept 2024Burgos – Granada CF2–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Burgos slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.59 for Burgos, 1.24 for Granada CF), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burgos sit 8th on 21 points; Granada CF are 4th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.