Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 13Saturday, 7 November 2026
Burgos
8th · 21 pts14:00KICK-OFF WAT
Celta de Vigo II
16th · 13 pts59% Burgos
21% Draw
20% Celta
OUR PICK
Burgos to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.11
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.7625.00
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
BurgosCelta de Vigo II1.4Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.9
1.75Points per game1.08
50%Win rate25%
4Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Burgos form
DWWWLH Castellón1–1
A Laredo2–4
A FC Andorra2–3
H Sabadell1–0
H Granada CF0–1
Celta de Vigo II form
DLDWLH Cordoba2–2
A Girona5–1
H Tenerife1–1
H Real Sociedad II4–1
A Sporting Gijon3–2
Head to head
1
Burgos
1
Draw
0
Celta
May 2021Burgos – Celta de Vigo II1–0
Apr 2021Celta de Vigo II – Burgos1–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Burgos clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.05 for Burgos, 1.11 for Celta de Vigo II), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burgos sit 8th on 21 points; Celta de Vigo II are 16th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.