Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 12Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Municipal El Plantio
Burgos
6th · 20 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Castellón
1st · 26 pts20% Burgos
28% Draw
53% Castellón
OUR PICK
Castellón to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.40
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.05X3.6421.90
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
61%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
BurgosCastellón1.5Goals per game2.0
1.1Conceded per game0.4
1.82Points per game2.36
55%Win rate73%
4Goal difference18
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Burgos form
WWWLLA Laredo2–4
A FC Andorra2–3
H Sabadell1–0
H Granada CF0–1
A Almeria2–1
Castellón form
WWWLDA Conquense0–3
H Sporting Gijon4–0
A Las Palmas0–3
A FC Andorra1–0
H AD Ceuta FC1–1
Head to head
0
Burgos
1
Draw
3
Castellón
Apr 2026Castellón – Burgos3–1
Nov 2025Burgos – Castellón0–0
Mar 2025Castellón – Burgos2–1
Sept 2024Burgos – Castellón0–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón11+1826
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Girona12+1121
5Granada CF11+420
6Burgos11+420
7Mallorca11+719
8Sporting Gijon11-219
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Castellón clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.74 for Burgos, 1.40 for Castellón), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burgos sit 6th on 20 points; Castellón are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.