Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 13Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio Américo Montanini
Bucaramanga
13th · 23 pts3–1FULL TIME
Junior
2nd · 35 pts39% Bucaramanga
27% Draw
34% Junior
OUR PICK
Bucaramanga to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.54
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.23
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.54X3.7722.93
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
BucaramangaJunior1.4Goals per game1.6
1.1Conceded per game1.3
1.21Points per game1.84
26%Win rate58%
6Goal difference7
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Bucaramanga form
DWLLDH Atletico Nacional1–1
H Deportivo Pasto2–1
A Santa Fe2–1
A Chico1–0
H America de Cali1–1
Junior form
LDWDDA Llaneros3–2
A Chico1–1
H Águilas Doradas1–0
A Deportivo Cali0–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
Head to head
2
Bucaramanga
1
Draw
2
Junior
Oct 2026Bucaramanga – Junior3–1
Mar 2026Junior – Bucaramanga2–0
Aug 2025Junior – Bucaramanga2–1
Mar 2025Bucaramanga – Junior1–1
Jul 2024Bucaramanga – Junior1–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Bucaramanga 39%, the draw 27%, Junior 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.34 for Bucaramanga, 1.23 for Junior), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bucaramanga sit 13th on 23 points; Junior are 2nd on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.