Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
WALPremier League · Matchday 13Friday, 9 October 2026 · Old Road
Briton Ferry
12th · 15 pts1–2FULL TIME
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2nd · 35 pts13% Briton
22% Draw
65% GAP
OUR PICK
GAP Connah S Quay FC to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
0.66 – 1.80
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.64X4.5121.54
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
60%
Double chance@1.15
X2
87%
Season stats
Briton FerryGAP Connah S Quay FC1.1Goals per game2.1
1.7Conceded per game0.6
1.00Points per game2.33
27%Win rate73%
-9Goal difference23
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Briton Ferry form
WLWLWH Llandudno3–0
A Caernarfon Town3–1
H Afan United5–0
H GAP Connah S Quay FC1–2
H Colwyn Bay1–0
GAP Connah S Quay FC form
DWWWWA The New Saints0–0
H Llandudno2–0
H Porthmadog4–0
A Briton Ferry1–2
H Penybont1–0
Head to head
2
Briton
0
Draw
3
GAP
Oct 2026Briton Ferry – GAP Connah S Quay FC1–2
Dec 2025GAP Connah S Quay FC – Briton Ferry4–2
Oct 2025Briton Ferry – GAP Connah S Quay FC0–3
Mar 2025Briton Ferry – GAP Connah S Quay FC1–0
Feb 2025GAP Connah S Quay FC – Briton Ferry0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.66 for Briton Ferry, 1.80 for GAP Connah S Quay FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Briton Ferry sit 12th on 15 points; GAP Connah S Quay FC are 2nd on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.