Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Memorial Stadium
Bristol Rovers
17th · 16 pts0–0FULL TIME
Swindon Town
13th · 19 pts40% Bristol
25% Draw
35% Swindon
OUR PICK
Bristol Rovers to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.33
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.51X3.9422.87
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Bristol RoversSwindon Town1.2Goals per game1.1
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.14Points per game1.36
36%Win rate36%
-6Goal difference-2
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
Bristol Rovers form
LDLLLA Fleetwood Town3–1
H Swindon Town0–0
H Salford City1–2
A Shrewsbury1–0
H Barnet1–3
Swindon Town form
WDWDLH Rotherham2–1
A Bristol Rovers0–0
A Barnet1–3
H Walsall1–1
H Crewe0–1
Head to head
1
Bristol
2
Draw
2
Swindon
Oct 2026Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town0–0
Feb 2026Swindon Town – Bristol Rovers1–1
Dec 2025Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town0–3
Oct 2024Swindon Town – Bristol Rovers4–0
Oct 2022Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town3–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Bristol Rovers 40%, the draw 25%, Swindon Town 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.44 for Bristol Rovers, 1.33 for Swindon Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bristol Rovers sit 17th on 16 points; Swindon Town are 13th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.