Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Memorial Stadium
Bristol Rovers
17th · 16 pts1–2FULL TIME
Salford City
1st · 31 pts26% Bristol
24% Draw
50% Salford
OUR PICK
Salford City to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.72
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.78X4.2022.01
Goals 2.5Over1.80Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Bristol RoversSalford City1.2Goals per game1.8
1.6Conceded per game1.1
1.14Points per game2.21
36%Win rate71%
-6Goal difference10
1Form, last 5 (pts)15
Bristol Rovers form
LDLLLA Fleetwood Town3–1
H Swindon Town0–0
H Salford City1–2
A Shrewsbury1–0
H Barnet1–3
Salford City form
WWWWWH Exeter City2–1
A Walsall2–4
A Bristol Rovers1–2
H Crawley Town2–1
A Cheltenham0–2
Head to head
2
Bristol
1
Draw
2
Salford
Oct 2026Bristol Rovers – Salford City1–2
Jan 2026Salford City – Bristol Rovers1–0
Sept 2025Bristol Rovers – Salford City2–1
Apr 2022Bristol Rovers – Salford City1–0
Nov 2021Salford City – Bristol Rovers1–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Salford City slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.19 for Bristol Rovers, 1.72 for Salford City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bristol Rovers sit 17th on 16 points; Salford City are 1st on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.