Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Memorial Stadium
Bristol Rovers
17th · 16 pts1–3FULL TIME
Barnet
2nd · 26 pts30% Bristol
22% Draw
48% Barnet
OUR PICK
Barnet to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.32X4.4722.10
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.54NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.54
GG
65%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Bristol RoversBarnet1.2Goals per game2.2
1.6Conceded per game1.4
1.14Points per game2.00
36%Win rate54%
-6Goal difference10
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
Bristol Rovers form
LDLLLA Fleetwood Town3–1
H Swindon Town0–0
H Salford City1–2
A Shrewsbury1–0
H Barnet1–3
Barnet form
DWDLWA Crewe1–1
H York3–1
H Oldham1–1
H Swindon Town1–3
A Tranmere1–2
Head to head
0
Bristol
1
Draw
4
Barnet
Oct 2026Bristol Rovers – Barnet1–3
Dec 2025Bristol Rovers – Barnet0–2
Dec 2025Barnet – Bristol Rovers4–0
Nov 2018Bristol Rovers – Barnet1–2
Nov 2018Barnet – Bristol Rovers1–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Barnet slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.46 for Bristol Rovers, 1.88 for Barnet), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bristol Rovers sit 17th on 16 points; Barnet are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.