Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City
14th · 18 pts13:30KICK-OFF WAT
Norwich
15th · 15 pts44% Bristol
24% Draw
32% Norwich
OUR PICK
Bristol City to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.29X4.1823.09
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Bristol CityNorwich1.2Goals per game1.8
1.3Conceded per game1.8
1.38Points per game1.15
38%Win rate38%
-2Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Bristol City form
WDLLDA Bolton2–3
A Stoke City0–0
H Sheffield Utd0–1
H Blackburn0–1
A Charlton1–1
Norwich form
WWLLLH Watford3–2
A Charlton1–3
H Portsmouth0–1
H Southampton0–1
A Swansea2–1
Head to head
3
Bristol
1
Draw
1
Norwich
Apr 2026Bristol City – Norwich2–4
Oct 2025Norwich – Bristol City0–1
Mar 2025Bristol City – Norwich2–1
Nov 2024Norwich – Bristol City0–2
Apr 2024Norwich – Bristol City1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Bristol City slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.65 for Bristol City, 1.39 for Norwich), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bristol City sit 14th on 18 points; Norwich are 15th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.