Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City
14th · 18 pts0–1FULL TIME
Blackburn
13th · 18 pts46% Bristol
25% Draw
29% Blackburn
OUR PICK
Bristol City to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X4.0723.40
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Bristol CityBlackburn1.2Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.38Points per game1.38
38%Win rate38%
-2Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Bristol City form
WDLLDA Bolton2–3
A Stoke City0–0
H Sheffield Utd0–1
H Blackburn0–1
A Charlton1–1
Blackburn form
LWLWWA Swansea4–0
H Wrexham2–0
A West Brom3–2
A Bristol City0–1
H Cardiff2–1
Head to head
2
Bristol
0
Draw
3
Blackburn
Oct 2026Bristol City – Blackburn0–1
Feb 2026Blackburn – Bristol City1–2
Nov 2025Bristol City – Blackburn0–1
Jan 2025Bristol City – Blackburn2–1
Sept 2024Blackburn – Bristol City3–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Bristol City slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.61 for Bristol City, 1.24 for Blackburn), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bristol City sit 14th on 18 points; Blackburn are 13th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.