Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Amex Stadium
Brighton
9th · 4 pts4–0FULL TIME
Kauno Žalgiris
36th · 0 pts56% Brighton
23% Draw
21% Kauno
OUR PICK
Brighton to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.99
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X4.3024.80
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
BrightonKauno Žalgiris2.0Goals per game0.5
0.0Conceded per game4.0
2.00Points per game0.00
50%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-7
4Form, last 5 (pts)0
Brighton form
WDLDWA Manchester City0–1
A Manchester City2–2
A Liverpool2–0
A FK Jablonec0–0
H Crystal Palace5–0
Kauno Žalgiris form
WDLWLA Hegelmann Litauen1–4
H FK Zalgiris Vilnius0–0
H Brann1–4
A Suduva Marijampole0–1
A Brighton4–0
Head to head
1
Brighton
0
Draw
0
Kauno
Oct 2026Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris4–0
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Brighton clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.78 for Brighton, 0.99 for Kauno Žalgiris), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Brighton sit 9th on 4 points; Kauno Žalgiris are 36th on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.