Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · American Express Stadium
Brighton
3rd · 19 pts5–0FULL TIME
Crystal Palace
18th · 7 pts81% Brighton
12% Draw
7% Crystal
OUR PICK
Brighton to win
Model probability 81% · fair odds
1.24
Expected goals
3.01 – 0.82
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.24X8.30213.96
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.08
1X
93%
Season stats
BrightonCrystal Palace2.7Goals per game1.0
0.8Conceded per game2.3
2.11Points per game0.78
67%Win rate22%
17Goal difference-12
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Brighton form
WDLDWA Manchester City0–1
A Manchester City2–2
A Liverpool2–0
A FK Jablonec0–0
H Crystal Palace5–0
Crystal Palace form
LWLDLA Tottenham2–0
A Fulham0–1
H Newcastle0–2
A Beşiktaş2–2
A Brighton5–0
Head to head
1
Brighton
1
Draw
3
Crystal
Oct 2026Brighton – Crystal Palace5–0
Feb 2026Brighton – Crystal Palace0–1
Nov 2025Crystal Palace – Brighton0–0
Apr 2025Crystal Palace – Brighton2–1
Dec 2024Brighton – Crystal Palace1–3
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Brighton clear favourites, giving them a 81% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (3.01 for Brighton, 0.82 for Crystal Palace), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Brighton sit 3rd on 19 points; Crystal Palace are 18th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.