Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Amex Stadium
Brighton
3rd · 19 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Brentford
6th · 14 pts61% Brighton
21% Draw
18% Brentford
OUR PICK
Brighton to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X4.8425.47
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
BrightonBrentford2.7Goals per game1.8
0.8Conceded per game1.0
2.11Points per game1.56
67%Win rate33%
17Goal difference7
12Form, last 5 (pts)8
Brighton form
WDLDWA Manchester City0–1
A Manchester City2–2
A Liverpool2–0
A FK Jablonec0–0
H Crystal Palace5–0
Brentford form
WLDLDH Nottingham Forest2–0
A Sunderland3–2
A Hull City1–1
H Liverpool1–2
A Aston Villa2–2
Head to head
2
Brighton
2
Draw
1
Brentford
Feb 2026Brentford – Brighton0–2
Nov 2025Brighton – Brentford2–1
Apr 2025Brentford – Brighton4–2
Dec 2024Brighton – Brentford0–0
Apr 2024Brentford – Brighton0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Brighton clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.07 for Brighton, 1.04 for Brentford), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Brighton sit 3rd on 19 points; Brentford are 6th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.