Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Gtech Community Stadium
Brentford
6th · 14 pts1–2FULL TIME
Liverpool
5th · 15 pts55% Brentford
25% Draw
20% Liverpool
OUR PICK
Brentford to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.82
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.9425.11
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.24
1X
80%
Season stats
BrentfordLiverpool1.8Goals per game1.2
1.0Conceded per game1.0
1.56Points per game1.67
33%Win rate44%
7Goal difference2
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
Brentford form
WLDLDH Nottingham Forest2–0
A Sunderland3–2
A Hull City1–1
H Liverpool1–2
A Aston Villa2–2
Liverpool form
LDWWWH Arsenal0–1
H Chelsea1–1
H Brighton2–0
H Villarreal4–3
A Brentford1–2
Head to head
1
Brentford
1
Draw
3
Liverpool
Oct 2026Brentford – Liverpool1–2
May 2026Liverpool – Brentford1–1
Oct 2025Brentford – Liverpool3–2
Jan 2025Brentford – Liverpool0–2
Aug 2024Liverpool – Brentford2–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Brentford clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.57 for Brentford, 0.82 for Liverpool), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Brentford sit 6th on 14 points; Liverpool are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.