Over 1.5 goals@2.16
Over 1.5
46%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Valley Parade
Bradford
7th · 22 pts2–0FULL TIME
Stevenage
16th · 16 pts30% Bradford
36% Draw
34% Stevenage
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.79
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.30X2.7922.96
Goals 2.5Over4.49Under1.26
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.41
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Under 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.41
NG
71%
Double chance@1.44
X2
70%
Season stats
BradfordStevenage0.8Goals per game1.4
0.6Conceded per game1.1
1.69Points per game1.33
46%Win rate33%
2Goal difference4
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Bradford form
LWDDWH Huddersfield0–3
H Peterborough2–0
A Oxford United0–0
A Burton Albion0–0
H Stevenage2–0
Stevenage form
DLWLWA Leicester2–2
H Milton Keynes Dons0–1
H Plymouth3–0
A Bradford2–0
H Wigan1–0
Head to head
3
Bradford
1
Draw
1
Stevenage
Oct 2026Bradford – Stevenage2–0
Apr 2026Bradford – Stevenage0–1
Oct 2025Stevenage – Bradford1–1
Feb 2023Stevenage – Bradford2–3
Sept 2022Bradford – Stevenage3–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Bradford 30%, the draw 36%, Stevenage 34%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.75 for Bradford, 0.81 for Stevenage), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bradford sit 7th on 22 points; Stevenage are 16th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.