Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
82%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
8th · 12 pts2–0FULL TIME
Sunderland
20th · 5 pts60% Bournemouth
21% Draw
19% Sunderland
OUR PICK
Bournemouth to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.66
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.05
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.66X4.7925.34
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
57%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
BournemouthSunderland1.6Goals per game0.8
1.4Conceded per game1.9
1.33Points per game0.56
33%Win rate11%
1Goal difference-10
9Form, last 5 (pts)1
Bournemouth form
WWWWWH Leeds2–0
H Aston Villa3–0
A Manchester United0–3
H AC Milan3–0
H Sunderland2–0
Sunderland form
LWDDLA Coventry3–1
H Brentford3–2
H Leeds0–0
A Lech Poznan1–1
A Bournemouth2–0
Head to head
2
Bournemouth
1
Draw
2
Sunderland
Oct 2026Bournemouth – Sunderland2–0
Feb 2026Bournemouth – Sunderland1–1
Nov 2025Sunderland – Bournemouth3–2
Apr 2017Sunderland – Bournemouth0–1
Nov 2016Bournemouth – Sunderland1–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Bournemouth clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.05 for Bournemouth, 1.05 for Sunderland), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bournemouth sit 8th on 12 points; Sunderland are 20th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.