Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
3rd · 9 pts3–0FULL TIME
Sturm Graz
19th · 4 pts50% Bournemouth
28% Draw
22% Sturm
OUR PICK
Bournemouth to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.82
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X3.6324.52
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
BournemouthSturm Graz2.7Goals per game0.3
0.3Conceded per game1.0
3.00Points per game1.33
100%Win rate33%
7Goal difference-2
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Bournemouth form
WWWWWH Leeds2–0
H Aston Villa3–0
A Manchester United0–3
H AC Milan3–0
H Sunderland2–0
Sturm Graz form
DLDWWA Wolfsberger AC1–1
A Austria Lustenau3–2
H Ried2–2
H Marseille1–0
H Grazer AK6–1
Head to head
1
Bournemouth
0
Draw
0
Sturm
Oct 2026Bournemouth – Sturm Graz3–0
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Bournemouth slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.39 for Bournemouth, 0.82 for Sturm Graz), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bournemouth sit 3rd on 9 points; Sturm Graz are 19th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.