Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 9Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
7th · 12 pts2–0FULL TIME
Leeds
11th · 11 pts42% Bournemouth
28% Draw
30% Leeds
OUR PICK
Bournemouth to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.03
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.39X3.5623.33
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.68
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
BournemouthLeeds1.6Goals per game1.0
1.4Conceded per game0.9
1.33Points per game1.22
33%Win rate22%
1Goal difference1
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Bournemouth form
No recent matches.
Leeds form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Bournemouth
0
Draw
0
Leeds
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Manchester City9+1021
2Arsenal8+821
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool8+315
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Bournemouth slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.27 for Bournemouth, 1.03 for Leeds), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bournemouth sit 7th on 12 points; Leeds are 11th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.