Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
3rd · 9 pts3–0FULL TIME
AC Milan
24th · 3 pts53% Bournemouth
23% Draw
24% AC
OUR PICK
Bournemouth to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.17
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.3824.14
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
BournemouthAC Milan2.7Goals per game1.3
0.3Conceded per game1.7
3.00Points per game1.00
100%Win rate33%
7Goal difference-1
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Bournemouth form
WWWWWH Leeds2–0
H Aston Villa3–0
A Manchester United0–3
H AC Milan3–0
H Sunderland2–0
AC Milan form
WLWLWH Inter3–1
H Bologna2–4
A Udinese0–2
A Bournemouth3–0
H Atalanta3–2
Head to head
1
Bournemouth
0
Draw
0
AC
Oct 2026Bournemouth – AC Milan3–0
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Bournemouth slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.84 for Bournemouth, 1.17 for AC Milan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bournemouth sit 3rd on 9 points; AC Milan are 24th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.