Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Hristo Botev Stadium
Botev Vratsa
10th · 10 pts0–1FULL TIME
Spartak Varna
8th · 13 pts46% Botev
26% Draw
29% Spartak
OUR PICK
Botev Vratsa to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X3.9123.46
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
Botev VratsaSpartak Varna0.8Goals per game0.9
1.8Conceded per game1.8
0.83Points per game1.00
17%Win rate23%
-11Goal difference-11
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Botev Vratsa form
DWLLLA Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
A Fratria1–2
A Botev Plovdiv2–0
H Spartak Varna0–1
A Slavia Sofia2–1
Spartak Varna form
LLWWLA CSKA 19486–1
A Dunav Ruse2–0
A Etar Veliko Tarnovo2–4
A Botev Vratsa0–1
H Lokomotiv Sofia0–1
Head to head
2
Botev
1
Draw
2
Spartak
Oct 2026Botev Vratsa – Spartak Varna0–1
May 2026Botev Vratsa – Spartak Varna2–1
Dec 2025Botev Vratsa – Spartak Varna2–0
Aug 2025Spartak Varna – Botev Vratsa1–1
Apr 2025Spartak Varna – Botev Vratsa1–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Botev Vratsa slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.51 for Botev Vratsa, 1.15 for Spartak Varna), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Botev Vratsa sit 10th on 10 points; Spartak Varna are 8th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.