Over 1.5 goals@1.96
Over 1.5
51%
BULFirst League · Matchday 13Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Hristo Botev Stadium
Botev Vratsa
11th · 10 pts12:30KICK-OFF WAT
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
13th · 9 pts41% Botev
33% Draw
26% Lokomotiv
OUR PICK
Botev Vratsa to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.72
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.45X2.9923.88
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.33
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.48
NG
68%
Double chance@1.35
1X
74%
Season stats
Botev VratsaLokomotiv Plovdiv0.8Goals per game0.5
1.7Conceded per game1.3
0.77Points per game0.69
15%Win rate15%
-12Goal difference-11
3Form, last 5 (pts)3
Botev Vratsa form
LDWLLA Cherno More Varna1–0
A Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
A Fratria1–2
A Botev Plovdiv2–0
H Spartak Varna0–1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv form
LDWWDH Ludogorets0–3
H Slavia Sofia0–0
A Cherno More Varna0–1
A Yantra 20190–2
A Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
Head to head
1
Botev
1
Draw
3
Lokomotiv
Mar 2026Botev Vratsa – Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–2
Oct 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Botev Vratsa3–0
May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Botev Vratsa1–3
Mar 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Botev Vratsa1–0
Oct 2024Botev Vratsa – Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali13-121
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes Botev Vratsa slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.99 for Botev Vratsa, 0.72 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Botev Vratsa sit 11th on 10 points; Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 13th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.