Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadion Hristo Botev
Botev Plovdiv
5th · 22 pts1–0FULL TIME
Slavia Sofia
7th · 13 pts40% Botev
30% Draw
30% Slavia
OUR PICK
Botev Plovdiv to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.95
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.48X3.3623.33
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.54
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.42
12
70%
Season stats
Botev PlovdivSlavia Sofia1.7Goals per game0.7
1.5Conceded per game0.7
1.69Points per game1.00
54%Win rate15%
2Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)3
Botev Plovdiv form
WLWWWA Lokomotiv Sofia2–5
A CSKA 19484–0
A Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0–4
H Botev Vratsa2–0
H Slavia Sofia1–0
Slavia Sofia form
DDWLWA CSKA Sofia0–0
A Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0
A Akademik Svishtov0–3
A Botev Plovdiv1–0
H Botev Vratsa2–1
Head to head
3
Botev
1
Draw
1
Slavia
Oct 2026Botev Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia1–0
Mar 2026Slavia Sofia – Botev Plovdiv0–1
Oct 2025Botev Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia1–1
Mar 2025Slavia Sofia – Botev Plovdiv3–2
Oct 2024Botev Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia1–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali13-121
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes Botev Plovdiv slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.15 for Botev Plovdiv, 0.95 for Slavia Sofia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Botev Plovdiv sit 5th on 22 points; Slavia Sofia are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.