Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Botafogo
12th · 39 pts1–2FULL TIME
Vasco DA Gama
13th · 38 pts48% Botafogo
23% Draw
28% Vasco
OUR PICK
Botafogo to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.30
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.07X4.2823.52
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
BotafogoVasco DA Gama1.4Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game1.5
1.18Points per game1.19
30%Win rate31%
-8Goal difference-9
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Botafogo form
LLWDLA Remo2–1
A Internacional3–0
H Chapecoense-sc1–0
A Coritiba1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–2
Vasco DA Gama form
LLWLLA Palmeiras1–0
H Flamengo1–4
H Corinthians3–2
H Boca Juniors1–3
A Sao Paulo1–0
Head to head
2
Botafogo
1
Draw
2
Vasco
Oct 2026Botafogo – Vasco DA Gama1–2
Apr 2026Vasco DA Gama – Botafogo1–2
Feb 2026Vasco DA Gama – Botafogo2–0
Nov 2025Botafogo – Vasco DA Gama3–0
Sept 2025Botafogo – Vasco DA Gama1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Botafogo slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.76 for Botafogo, 1.30 for Vasco DA Gama), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Botafogo sit 12th on 39 points; Vasco DA Gama are 13th on 38.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.