Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Estadio Santa Cruz
Botafogo SP
12th · 48 pts1–0FULL TIME
Ceara
16th · 43 pts48% Botafogo
27% Draw
25% Ceara
OUR PICK
Botafogo SP to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X3.6823.96
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.34
1X
75%
Season stats
Botafogo SPCeara1.1Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game1.3
1.33Points per game1.19
36%Win rate31%
2Goal difference-8
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
Botafogo SP form
DWWWWH Sport Recife1–1
A Avai0–2
A CRB0–1
H Ceara1–0
A Operario-PR1–2
Ceara form
LLDLWA Athletic Club2–1
H Goias0–2
H Juventude2–2
A Botafogo SP1–0
H Criciuma1–0
Head to head
2
Botafogo
1
Draw
2
Ceara
Oct 2026Botafogo SP – Ceara1–0
Jun 2026Ceara – Botafogo SP0–1
Nov 2024Botafogo SP – Ceara1–4
Jul 2024Ceara – Botafogo SP4–1
Nov 2023Botafogo SP – Ceara2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Botafogo SP slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.40 for Botafogo SP, 0.94 for Ceara), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Botafogo SP sit 12th on 48 points; Ceara are 16th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.