Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
BRASerie A · Matchday 31Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Botafogo
12th · 39 pts1–0FULL TIME
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 21 pts63% Botafogo
19% Draw
18% Chapecoense-sc
OUR PICK
Botafogo to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.16
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X5.2725.61
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
BotafogoChapecoense-sc1.4Goals per game1.0
1.6Conceded per game2.1
1.18Points per game0.66
30%Win rate13%
-8Goal difference-34
4Form, last 5 (pts)3
Botafogo form
LLWDLA Remo2–1
A Internacional3–0
H Chapecoense-sc1–0
A Coritiba1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–2
Chapecoense-sc form
LWLLLA RB Bragantino3–0
H Fluminense2–1
A Botafogo1–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–4
A Vitoria4–0
Head to head
4
Botafogo
0
Draw
1
Chapecoense-sc
Oct 2026Botafogo – Chapecoense-sc1–0
May 2026Chapecoense-sc – Botafogo2–0
Apr 2026Botafogo – Chapecoense-sc1–0
Apr 2026Chapecoense-sc – Botafogo1–4
Nov 2019Chapecoense-SC – Botafogo0–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Botafogo clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.32 for Botafogo, 1.16 for Chapecoense-sc), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Botafogo sit 12th on 39 points; Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.