Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Parque Artigas
Boston River
13th · 37 pts0–0FULL TIME
Juventud
9th · 41 pts38% Boston
28% Draw
34% Juventud
OUR PICK
Boston River to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.64
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.13
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.64X3.5622.94
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Boston RiverJuventud1.0Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.06Points per game1.17
29%Win rate29%
-13Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Boston River form
LLWDWH Atletico Torque1–2
A Cerro Largo2–0
H Defensor Sporting1–0
H CA River Plate0–0
A Wanderers1–3
Juventud form
LWDLWA Liverpool Montevideo2–0
A Nacional Florida0–2
H Penarol0–0
A Progreso2–0
H Racing Montevideo2–0
Head to head
2
Boston
2
Draw
1
Juventud
Oct 2026Boston River – Juventud0–0
Mar 2026Juventud – Boston River1–2
Oct 2025Boston River – Juventud0–0
Jun 2025Boston River – Juventud3–2
Apr 2025Juventud – Boston River4–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Boston River 38%, the draw 28%, Juventud 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.21 for Boston River, 1.13 for Juventud), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Boston River sit 13th on 37 points; Juventud are 9th on 41.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.