Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Parque Artigas
Boston River
13th · 37 pts1–0FULL TIME
Defensor Sporting
11th · 39 pts38% Boston
29% Draw
33% Defensor
OUR PICK
Boston River to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X3.4523.01
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
Boston RiverDefensor Sporting1.0Goals per game1.0
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.09Points per game1.11
29%Win rate26%
-12Goal difference-8
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Boston River form
LWDWDA Cerro Largo2–0
H Defensor Sporting1–0
H CA River Plate0–0
A Wanderers1–3
H Juventud0–0
Defensor Sporting form
WDLLLA Progreso0–2
H Racing Montevideo3–3
A Boston River1–0
H Cerro2–3
A Albion FC3–2
Head to head
2
Boston
1
Draw
2
Defensor
Oct 2026Boston River – Defensor Sporting1–0
Jun 2026Defensor Sporting – Boston River1–1
Apr 2026Defensor Sporting – Boston River2–0
Aug 2025Boston River – Defensor Sporting4–0
Feb 2025Defensor Sporting – Boston River2–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Boston River 38%, the draw 29%, Defensor Sporting 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.15 for Boston River, 1.06 for Defensor Sporting), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Boston River sit 13th on 37 points; Defensor Sporting are 11th on 39.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.