Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 5Friday, 9 October 2026 · Signal Iduna Park
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 18 pts2–2FULL TIME
Werder Bremen
5th · 15 pts58% Borussia
22% Draw
20% Werder
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Borussia Dortmund to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.72
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.02
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.72X4.5325.05
Goals 2.5Over1.78Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen1.8Goals per game2.1
0.8Conceded per game1.8
2.25Points per game1.88
63%Win rate50%
8Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)11
Borussia Dortmund form
DWWWDA Bayern München2–2
H Werder Bremen3–2
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
A Sabah FA1–2
A Union Berlin0–0
Werder Bremen form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Borussia
0
Draw
0
Werder
These sides haven't met recently.
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.91 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.02 for Werder Bremen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 18 points; Werder Bremen are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.