Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Signal Iduna Park
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 18 pts15:30KICK-OFF WAT
SV Elversberg
7th · 13 pts62% Borussia
20% Draw
18% SV
OUR PICK
Borussia Dortmund to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.06
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X4.9925.63
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Borussia DortmundSV Elversberg1.8Goals per game2.0
0.8Conceded per game2.0
2.25Points per game1.63
63%Win rate50%
8Goal difference0
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Borussia Dortmund form
DWWWDA Bayern München2–2
H Werder Bremen3–2
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
A Sabah FA1–2
A Union Berlin0–0
SV Elversberg form
WLLWLH FSV Mainz 054–1
H SV Darmstadt 980–2
A RB Leipzig4–0
H FC Augsburg4–3
A Union Berlin1–0
Head to head
0
Borussia
0
Draw
0
SV
These sides haven't met recently.
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.15 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.06 for SV Elversberg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 18 points; SV Elversberg are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.