Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton
19th · 14 pts1–5FULL TIME
Middlesbrough
1st · 28 pts29% Bolton
22% Draw
49% Middlesbrough
OUR PICK
Middlesbrough to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.97
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.41X4.5822.05
Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.50NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.50
GG
67%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
BoltonMiddlesbrough1.4Goals per game2.3
2.0Conceded per game1.3
1.08Points per game2.15
31%Win rate62%
-8Goal difference13
4Form, last 5 (pts)13
Bolton form
LLDWLH Bristol City2–3
H Middlesbrough1–5
A Southampton0–0
A Wolves1–3
H Stoke City1–2
Middlesbrough form
WWDWWH Charlton3–0
A Bolton1–5
H Cardiff2–2
A Stoke City2–3
H Wolves1–0
Head to head
0
Bolton
0
Draw
5
Middlesbrough
Oct 2026Bolton – Middlesbrough1–5
Jul 2024Middlesbrough – Bolton3–0
Aug 2023Bolton – Middlesbrough1–3
Apr 2019Bolton – Middlesbrough0–2
Sept 2018Middlesbrough – Bolton2–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Middlesbrough slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.49 for Bolton, 1.97 for Middlesbrough), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bolton sit 19th on 14 points; Middlesbrough are 1st on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.