Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Alberto J. Armando
Boca Juniors
2nd · 30 pts3–0FULL TIME
Union Santa Fe
8th · 21 pts51% Boca
26% Draw
23% Union
OUR PICK
Boca Juniors to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.89
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.97X3.7824.38
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Boca JuniorsUnion Santa Fe1.4Goals per game1.5
0.6Conceded per game1.3
1.88Points per game1.31
50%Win rate31%
13Goal difference4
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
Boca Juniors form
WWWWLH River Plate1–0
A Independiente0–1
A Vasco DA Gama1–3
H Talleres Cordoba2–1
H Vasco DA Gama0–1
Union Santa Fe form
DWDLLA Newells Old Boys1–1
H Estudiantes L.P.3–1
A Deportivo Riestra1–1
H Defensa Y Justicia0–2
A Boca Juniors3–0
Head to head
2
Boca
3
Draw
0
Union
Oct 2026Boca Juniors – Union Santa Fe3–0
Mar 2026Union Santa Fe – Boca Juniors1–1
Jul 2025Boca Juniors – Union Santa Fe1–1
Jan 2025Union Santa Fe – Boca Juniors1–1
Nov 2024Boca Juniors – Union Santa Fe1–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Boca Juniors slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.47 for Boca Juniors, 0.89 for Union Santa Fe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Boca Juniors sit 2nd on 30 points; Union Santa Fe are 8th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.