Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Ewood Park
Blackburn
13th · 18 pts2–0FULL TIME
Wrexham
18th · 14 pts44% Blackburn
25% Draw
31% Wrexham
OUR PICK
Blackburn to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.28
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.28
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.28X4.0323.19
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
BlackburnWrexham1.5Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.38Points per game1.08
38%Win rate23%
-1Goal difference-4
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Blackburn form
LWLWWA Swansea4–0
H Wrexham2–0
A West Brom3–2
A Bristol City0–1
H Cardiff2–1
Wrexham form
LLWLDA Sheffield Utd1–0
A Blackburn2–0
H Preston4–1
H West Brom1–2
A Derby1–1
Head to head
2
Blackburn
1
Draw
1
Wrexham
Oct 2026Blackburn – Wrexham2–0
Jan 2026Blackburn – Wrexham0–2
Nov 2025Wrexham – Blackburn1–1
Jan 2024Blackburn – Wrexham4–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Blackburn slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.28 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.56 for Blackburn, 1.28 for Wrexham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Blackburn sit 13th on 18 points; Wrexham are 18th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.