Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Ewood Park
Blackburn
13th · 18 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Stoke City
7th · 23 pts38% Blackburn
25% Draw
37% Stoke
OUR PICK
Blackburn to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.62
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.62X4.0022.72
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
BlackburnStoke City1.5Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.38Points per game1.77
38%Win rate54%
-1Goal difference4
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Blackburn form
LWLWWA Swansea4–0
H Wrexham2–0
A West Brom3–2
A Bristol City0–1
H Cardiff2–1
Stoke City form
WDWLWH Preston2–0
H Bristol City0–0
A Derby0–1
H Middlesbrough2–3
A Bolton1–2
Head to head
1
Blackburn
2
Draw
2
Stoke
Apr 2026Stoke City – Blackburn1–1
Oct 2025Blackburn – Stoke City1–1
Mar 2025Stoke City – Blackburn1–0
Nov 2024Blackburn – Stoke City0–2
Feb 2024Blackburn – Stoke City3–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Blackburn 38%, the draw 25%, Stoke City 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.44 for Blackburn, 1.41 for Stoke City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Blackburn sit 13th on 18 points; Stoke City are 7th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.