Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Ewood Park
Blackburn
13th · 18 pts2–1FULL TIME
Cardiff
17th · 14 pts43% Blackburn
24% Draw
33% Cardiff
OUR PICK
Blackburn to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.34X4.1723.01
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
BlackburnCardiff1.5Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.38Points per game1.08
38%Win rate23%
-1Goal difference-1
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Blackburn form
LWLWWA Swansea4–0
H Wrexham2–0
A West Brom3–2
A Bristol City0–1
H Cardiff2–1
Cardiff form
LWDWLA Wolves3–0
H Birmingham1–0
A Middlesbrough2–2
H Watford5–1
A Blackburn2–1
Head to head
3
Blackburn
1
Draw
1
Cardiff
Oct 2026Blackburn – Cardiff2–1
Mar 2025Blackburn – Cardiff1–2
Nov 2024Cardiff – Blackburn1–3
Feb 2024Cardiff – Blackburn0–0
Oct 2023Blackburn – Cardiff1–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Blackburn slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.63 for Blackburn, 1.41 for Cardiff), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Blackburn sit 13th on 18 points; Cardiff are 17th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.