Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Saturday, 7 November 2026
Birmingham
6th · 23 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Swansea
2nd · 26 pts46% Birmingham
27% Draw
27% Swansea
OUR PICK
Birmingham to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.03
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X3.7723.70
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.96
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.96
NG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
BirminghamSwansea1.8Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.0
1.77Points per game2.00
46%Win rate62%
10Goal difference7
12Form, last 5 (pts)9
Birmingham form
WLWWWA Lincoln1–3
A Cardiff1–0
H QPR3–0
H Preston4–0
A West Brom0–1
Swansea form
WLLWWH Blackburn4–0
A QPR5–0
H West Ham0–1
A Millwall0–1
H Norwich2–1
Head to head
2
Birmingham
3
Draw
0
Swansea
Aug 2026Swansea – Birmingham0–1
Jan 2026Swansea – Birmingham1–1
Sept 2025Birmingham – Swansea1–0
Jan 2024Birmingham – Swansea2–2
Aug 2023Swansea – Birmingham1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.44 for Birmingham, 1.03 for Swansea), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Birmingham sit 6th on 23 points; Swansea are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.