Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · St. Andrew's Stadium
Birmingham
6th · 23 pts3–0FULL TIME
QPR
9th · 20 pts43% Birmingham
26% Draw
31% QPR
OUR PICK
Birmingham to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.33
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.33X3.8823.19
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
BirminghamQPR1.8Goals per game1.6
1.0Conceded per game1.2
1.77Points per game1.54
46%Win rate38%
10Goal difference5
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Birmingham form
WLWWWA Lincoln1–3
A Cardiff1–0
H QPR3–0
H Preston4–0
A West Brom0–1
QPR form
LWLWDA Southampton4–1
H Swansea5–0
A Birmingham3–0
H Derby4–1
A West Ham1–1
Head to head
2
Birmingham
1
Draw
2
QPR
Oct 2026Birmingham – QPR3–0
Mar 2026Birmingham – QPR1–0
Dec 2025QPR – Birmingham2–1
Mar 2024QPR – Birmingham2–1
Sept 2023Birmingham – QPR0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.46 for Birmingham, 1.21 for QPR), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Birmingham sit 6th on 23 points; QPR are 9th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.