Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · St. Andrew's Stadium
Birmingham
6th · 23 pts4–0FULL TIME
Preston
24th · 5 pts70% Birmingham
19% Draw
11% Preston
OUR PICK
Birmingham to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.42
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.71
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.42X5.3929.02
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.12
1X
89%
Season stats
BirminghamPreston1.8Goals per game0.8
1.0Conceded per game2.1
1.77Points per game0.38
46%Win rate8%
10Goal difference-17
12Form, last 5 (pts)1
Birmingham form
WLWWWA Lincoln1–3
A Cardiff1–0
H QPR3–0
H Preston4–0
A West Brom0–1
Preston form
LDLLLA Stoke City2–0
H West Brom1–1
A Wrexham4–1
A Birmingham4–0
H Millwall0–1
Head to head
4
Birmingham
0
Draw
1
Preston
Oct 2026Birmingham – Preston4–0
Apr 2026Birmingham – Preston2–1
Oct 2025Preston – Birmingham0–1
Apr 2024Birmingham – Preston1–0
Sept 2023Preston – Birmingham2–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.14 for Birmingham, 0.71 for Preston), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Birmingham sit 6th on 23 points; Preston are 24th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.