Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · St. Andrew's Stadium
Birmingham
6th · 23 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Millwall
12th · 18 pts58% Birmingham
21% Draw
21% Millwall
OUR PICK
Birmingham to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.72
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.15
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.72X4.7424.80
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.68NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.68
GG
60%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
BirminghamMillwall1.8Goals per game1.8
1.0Conceded per game1.6
1.77Points per game1.38
46%Win rate38%
10Goal difference2
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Birmingham form
WLWWWA Lincoln1–3
A Cardiff1–0
H QPR3–0
H Preston4–0
A West Brom0–1
Millwall form
WLDLWH Derby4–1
A Portsmouth2–1
H Lincoln2–2
H Swansea0–1
A Preston0–1
Head to head
2
Birmingham
1
Draw
2
Millwall
Feb 2026Millwall – Birmingham3–0
Nov 2025Birmingham – Millwall4–0
Mar 2024Millwall – Birmingham1–0
Sept 2023Birmingham – Millwall1–1
Apr 2023Millwall – Birmingham0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.05 for Birmingham, 1.15 for Millwall), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Birmingham sit 6th on 23 points; Millwall are 12th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.