Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 18 October 2026 · Protective Stadium
Birmingham Legion
11th · 30 pts0–0FULL TIME
Loudoun United
10th · 31 pts49% Birmingham
23% Draw
28% Loudoun
OUR PICK
Birmingham Legion to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.35
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X4.3923.54
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
Birmingham LegionLoudoun United1.3Goals per game1.3
1.5Conceded per game1.6
1.00Points per game1.03
20%Win rate20%
-6Goal difference-10
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Birmingham Legion form
LWDWLA Pittsburgh Riverhounds2–1
A Brooklyn1–2
H Loudoun United0–0
A Sporting JAX0–1
A Detroit City1–0
Loudoun United form
WDLWDH Brooklyn4–3
A Birmingham Legion0–0
A Rhode Island1–0
A Miami FC0–2
H Indy Eleven1–1
Head to head
1
Birmingham
3
Draw
1
Loudoun
Oct 2026Birmingham Legion – Loudoun United0–0
Jun 2026Birmingham Legion – Loudoun United1–1
Apr 2026Loudoun United – Birmingham Legion2–2
Oct 2025Loudoun United – Birmingham Legion0–1
Mar 2025Birmingham Legion – Loudoun United1–3
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham Legion slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.84 for Birmingham Legion, 1.35 for Loudoun United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Birmingham Legion sit 11th on 30 points; Loudoun United are 10th on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.