Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica
2nd · 25 pts2–0FULL TIME
Vitória SC
13th · 9 pts65% Benfica
20% Draw
14% Vitória
OUR PICK
Benfica to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.53
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.81
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.53X4.8927.04
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
BenficaVitória SC2.7Goals per game1.0
0.8Conceded per game1.0
2.50Points per game0.90
80%Win rate20%
19Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)5
Benfica form
WWWWWH Alverca1–0
H GIL Vicente4–1
A Santa Clara1–2
A Omonia Nicosia1–4
H Celtic4–1
Vitória SC form
DWWLWA GIL Vicente0–0
H Maritimo5–0
A Recreativa de Lamelas0–1
A Benfica2–0
A Chaves0–1
Head to head
5
Benfica
0
Draw
0
Vitória
Oct 2026Benfica – Vitória SC2–0
Mar 2026Benfica – Vitória SC3–0
Nov 2025Vitória SC – Benfica0–3
Apr 2025Vitória SC – Benfica0–3
Dec 2024Benfica – Vitória SC1–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes Benfica clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.01 for Benfica, 0.81 for Vitória SC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Benfica sit 2nd on 25 points; Vitória SC are 13th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.