Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica
1st · 9 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Lech Poznan
32nd · 1 pts88% Benfica
8% Draw
4% Lech
OUR PICK
Benfica to win
Model probability 88% · fair odds
1.14
Expected goals
3.50 – 0.69
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.14X12.06225.23
Goals 2.5Over1.28Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.28
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
52%
Double chance@1.04
1X
96%
Season stats
BenficaLech Poznan3.3Goals per game0.3
0.7Conceded per game3.0
3.00Points per game0.33
100%Win rate0%
8Goal difference-8
9Form, last 5 (pts)1
Benfica form
WWWWWH GIL Vicente4–1
A Santa Clara1–2
A Omonia Nicosia1–4
H Celtic4–1
H Vitória SC2–0
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Head to head
2
Benfica
0
Draw
0
Lech
Dec 2020Benfica – Lech Poznan4–0
Oct 2020Lech Poznan – Benfica2–4
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Benfica clear favourites, giving them a 88% chance of winning against 8% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (3.50 for Benfica, 0.69 for Lech Poznan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Benfica sit 1st on 9 points; Lech Poznan are 32nd on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.