Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Monday, 2 November 2026 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica
2nd · 22 pts21:15KICK-OFF WAT
Alverca
9th · 11 pts75% Benfica
14% Draw
10% Alverca
OUR PICK
Benfica to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.32
Expected goals
2.81 – 0.96
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.32X6.9829.82
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
BenficaAlverca2.9Goals per game1.4
0.9Conceded per game1.4
2.44Points per game1.22
78%Win rate33%
18Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)9
Benfica form
No recent matches.
Alverca form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Benfica
0
Draw
0
Alverca
These sides haven't met recently.
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara9+718
5Arouca9+517
6Academico Viseu9+217
7GIL Vicente9+114
8Moreirense10-414
9Alverca9011
10SC Braga9-211
Match preview
Our model makes Benfica clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.81 for Benfica, 0.96 for Alverca), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Benfica sit 2nd on 22 points; Alverca are 9th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.