Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadio Ciro Vigorito
Benevento
6th · 15 pts2–0FULL TIME
Cesena
12th · 12 pts49% Benevento
26% Draw
25% Cesena
OUR PICK
Benevento to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.99
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X3.8524.01
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
BeneventoCesena1.4Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game1.4
1.50Points per game1.20
40%Win rate20%
4Goal difference-3
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Benevento form
LDWDWA Cremonese2–0
H Catanzaro1–1
A Arezzo0–3
H Vicenza Virtus2–2
H Cesena2–0
Cesena form
DWLDLA Sudtirol1–1
H Empoli2–1
A Modena3–0
H Avellino1–1
A Benevento2–0
Head to head
2
Benevento
0
Draw
1
Cesena
Oct 2026Benevento – Cesena2–0
Apr 2017Cesena – Benevento4–1
Dec 2016Benevento – Cesena2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Benevento slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.50 for Benevento, 0.99 for Cesena), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Benevento sit 6th on 15 points; Cesena are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.