Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ITASerie B · Matchday 9Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Stadio Ciro Vigorito
Benevento
6th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Catanzaro
20th · 6 pts71% Benevento
17% Draw
12% Catanzaro
OUR PICK
Benevento to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.40
Expected goals
2.41 – 0.87
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.40X5.9028.52
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
BeneventoCatanzaro1.4Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game2.2
1.50Points per game0.60
40%Win rate10%
4Goal difference-11
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Benevento form
LDWDWA Cremonese2–0
H Catanzaro1–1
A Arezzo0–3
H Vicenza Virtus2–2
H Cesena2–0
Catanzaro form
DDLDLH Padova1–1
A Benevento1–1
H Ascoli1–6
A Hellas Verona2–2
H Mantova1–3
Head to head
0
Benevento
1
Draw
0
Catanzaro
Oct 2026Benevento – Catanzaro1–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Benevento clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.41 for Benevento, 0.87 for Catanzaro), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Benevento sit 6th on 15 points; Catanzaro are 20th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.