Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
ITASerie B · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Stadio Ciro Vigorito
Benevento
6th · 15 pts19:30KICK-OFF WAT
Avellino
5th · 15 pts41% Benevento
28% Draw
31% Avellino
OUR PICK
Benevento to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.44
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.44X3.5823.21
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
BeneventoAvellino1.4Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.0
1.50Points per game1.50
40%Win rate40%
4Goal difference5
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Benevento form
LDWDWA Cremonese2–0
H Catanzaro1–1
A Arezzo0–3
H Vicenza Virtus2–2
H Cesena2–0
Avellino form
WDLDWH Pisa2–0
A Virtus Entella1–1
H Padova0–1
A Cesena1–1
H Sampdoria4–1
Head to head
1
Benevento
1
Draw
3
Avellino
Mar 2025Avellino – Benevento2–1
Nov 2024Benevento – Avellino2–2
Apr 2024Avellino – Benevento1–0
Dec 2023Benevento – Avellino0–1
May 2017Benevento – Avellino2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Benevento slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.27 for Benevento, 1.07 for Avellino), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Benevento sit 6th on 15 points; Avellino are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.