Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
67%
NGANPFL · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium
Bendel Insurance
3rd · 18 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Niger Tornadoes
8th · 16 pts44% Bendel
28% Draw
28% Niger
OUR PICK
Bendel Insurance to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X3.5823.58
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.67
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.39
1X
72%
Season stats
Bendel InsuranceNiger Tornadoes1.8Goals per game0.8
1.5Conceded per game0.7
1.80Points per game1.45
60%Win rate36%
3Goal difference1
9Form, last 5 (pts)11
Bendel Insurance form
WWLWLA Kwara United1–2
H Rivers United2–1
A Sporting Lagos2–1
H Barau FC4–1
A Abia Warriors3–0
Niger Tornadoes form
DWWDWH Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–1
H Ikorodu City2–1
A Ranchers Bees0–0
H Kun Khalifat FC1–0
Head to head
2
Bendel
2
Draw
1
Niger
Feb 2026Niger Tornadoes – Bendel Insurance2–2
Sept 2025Bendel Insurance – Niger Tornadoes1–0
Feb 2025Bendel Insurance – Niger Tornadoes3–0
Sept 2024Niger Tornadoes – Bendel Insurance1–1
Apr 2024Bendel Insurance – Niger Tornadoes1–3
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Bendel Insurance slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.31 for Bendel Insurance, 0.98 for Niger Tornadoes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bendel Insurance sit 3rd on 18 points; Niger Tornadoes are 8th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.