Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
NGANPFL · Matchday 7Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium
Bendel Insurance
3rd · 18 pts4–1FULL TIME
Barau FC
7th · 16 pts30% Bendel
28% Draw
42% Barau
OUR PICK
Barau FC to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.33X3.6122.37
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
Bendel InsuranceBarau FC1.8Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game0.9
1.80Points per game1.45
60%Win rate27%
3Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Bendel Insurance form
WWLWLA Kwara United1–2
H Rivers United2–1
A Sporting Lagos2–1
H Barau FC4–1
A Abia Warriors3–0
Barau FC form
DDDDLA Niger Tornadoes0–0
H Kwara United1–1
A Rivers United0–0
H Enugu Rangers2–2
A Bendel Insurance4–1
Head to head
1
Bendel
2
Draw
0
Barau
Oct 2026Bendel Insurance – Barau FC4–1
Jan 2026Bendel Insurance – Barau FC0–0
Sept 2025Barau FC – Bendel Insurance1–1
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Barau FC slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.05 for Bendel Insurance, 1.30 for Barau FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bendel Insurance sit 3rd on 18 points; Barau FC are 7th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.