Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
CHNSuper League · Matchday 28Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Beijing Workers' Stadium
Beijing Guoan
3rd · 47 pts1–0FULL TIME
Qingdao Youth Island
7th · 39 pts60% Beijing
22% Draw
18% Qingdao
OUR PICK
Beijing Guoan to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.66
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.90
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.66X4.5125.66
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.21
1X
82%
Season stats
Beijing GuoanQingdao Youth Island2.0Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.62Points per game1.34
48%Win rate28%
21Goal difference-6
11Form, last 5 (pts)3
Beijing Guoan form
DWWWWH Jeonbuk Motors2–2
A Henan Jianye3–4
H Qingdao Youth Island1–0
A Buriram United0–1
A Qingdao Jonoon0–3
Qingdao Youth Island form
DLLDDH Yunnan Yukun1–1
A Beijing Guoan1–0
H Dalian Zhixing0–4
A Wuhan Three Towns2–2
A Tianjin Teda1–1
Head to head
3
Beijing
2
Draw
0
Qingdao
Oct 2026Beijing Guoan – Qingdao Youth Island1–0
May 2026Qingdao Youth Island – Beijing Guoan1–1
Aug 2025Qingdao Youth Island – Beijing Guoan1–3
Jul 2025Qingdao Youth Island – Beijing Guoan2–2
Jun 2025Beijing Guoan – Qingdao Youth Island1–0
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Chengdu Better City29+1652
2Dalian Zhixing29+349
3Beijing Guoan29+2147
4Shandong Luneng29+1044
5SHANGHAI SIPG29+1442
6Yunnan Yukun29-340
7Qingdao Youth Island29-639
8Shanghai Shenhua29+1337
9Chongqing Tongliang Long29-336
10Hangzhou Greentown29-334
Match preview
Our model makes Beijing Guoan clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.87 for Beijing Guoan, 0.90 for Qingdao Youth Island), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Beijing Guoan sit 3rd on 47 points; Qingdao Youth Island are 7th on 39.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.