Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
CHNSuper League · Matchday 30Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Beijing Workers' Stadium
Beijing Guoan
3rd · 47 pts08:30KICK-OFF WAT
Chongqing Tongliang Long
9th · 36 pts58% Beijing
24% Draw
18% Chongqing
OUR PICK
Beijing Guoan to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.74
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.82
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.74X4.1325.48
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Beijing GuoanChongqing Tongliang Long2.0Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.62Points per game1.24
48%Win rate28%
21Goal difference-3
11Form, last 5 (pts)6
Beijing Guoan form
DWWWWH Jeonbuk Motors2–2
A Henan Jianye3–4
H Qingdao Youth Island1–0
A Buriram United0–1
A Qingdao Jonoon0–3
Chongqing Tongliang Long form
WDDLLH Qingdao Jonoon2–0
A Yunnan Yukun1–1
H Shandong Luneng1–1
H Shanghai Shenhua1–3
A Yunnan Yukun1–0
Head to head
1
Beijing
0
Draw
0
Chongqing
May 2026Chongqing Tongliang Long – Beijing Guoan2–3
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Chengdu Better City29+1652
2Dalian Zhixing29+349
3Beijing Guoan29+2147
4Shandong Luneng29+1044
5SHANGHAI SIPG29+1442
6Yunnan Yukun29-340
7Qingdao Youth Island29-639
8Shanghai Shenhua29+1337
9Chongqing Tongliang Long29-336
10Hangzhou Greentown29-334
Match preview
Our model makes Beijing Guoan clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.67 for Beijing Guoan, 0.82 for Chongqing Tongliang Long), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Beijing Guoan sit 3rd on 47 points; Chongqing Tongliang Long are 9th on 36.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.