Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
TURSüper Lig · Matchday 7Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Tupras Stadium
Beşiktaş
4th · 19 pts2–1FULL TIME
Kocaelispor
8th · 16 pts47% Beşiktaş
27% Draw
26% Kocaelispor
OUR PICK
Beşiktaş to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.96
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X3.6623.83
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.35
1X
74%
Season stats
BeşiktaşKocaelispor2.0Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.90Points per game1.60
60%Win rate50%
8Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Beşiktaş form
DWDLWA Kasımpaşa2–2
H Başakşehir2–0
H Crystal Palace2–2
A Trabzonspor2–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim2–3
Kocaelispor form
DWWLLH Rizespor0–0
H Mazıdağı Fosfatspor3–0
A Alanyaspor1–2
H Göztepe1–2
A Beşiktaş2–1
Head to head
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draw
0
Kocaelispor
Oct 2026Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor2–1
Feb 2026Kocaelispor – Beşiktaş0–1
Feb 2026Kocaelispor – Beşiktaş1–1
Sept 2025Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor3–1
Süper Lig table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Galatasaray10+1125
2Amed10+1423
3Trabzonspor10+1622
4Beşiktaş10+819
5Kasımpaşa10+417
6Fenerbahçe10+1416
7Çorum FK10+516
8Kocaelispor10+216
9Göztepe10+415
10Başakşehir10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Beşiktaş slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.38 for Beşiktaş, 0.96 for Kocaelispor), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Beşiktaş sit 4th on 19 points; Kocaelispor are 8th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.